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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."